10 years ago, at the beginning of 1998, the world VLCC fleet counted 434 vessels. 63 were of DH construction, and about 172 TT´s, mostly built in the 1970s, were still trading. Over a period of about 5 years virtually all of the oldies were removed. Combined with deliveries of new tonnage during the period, the fleet actually shrunk 424 vessels during the period.

Do we have a similar situation today?

With the inclusion of the latest VLOCs contracted by Vale in China, the current order book totals about 250 mdwt. This is about equal to the total deadweight tonnage of the entire bulk carrier fleet built before 2001. The average age of the fleet, at 12.3 years, has remained quite stable for the past 15 years, give or take a few months. The average age of ships being sold for demolition was quite stable at about 25 years before rising to an average of 29 years during the last four years.

Singer Katie Melua sang a few years ago that "There are nine million bicycles in Beijing..." and she was promptly and publicly corrected by physicist Simon Singh. Now, we believe there are 176 shipyards in China, however, we expect others to disagree with this figure. About 24 of these did not deliver any ships in 2007, but they have substantial order books - especially bulk carriers. The market is rife with rumours about lack of funding, potential bankruptcies, and eventual non-deliveries of ships. This will, it is said, alleviate net fleet growth in the coming years. Is this, perhaps, wishful thinking?